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(Environment) Population of Planet to Hit 6.5 Billion

 
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2006 8:07 am    Post subject: (Environment) Population of Planet to Hit 6.5 Billion Reply with quote






Planet's Population to Hit 6.5 Billion Saturday
By Leonard David
LiveScience Senior Writer
posted: 24 February 2006
12:38 pm ET

A population milestone is about to be set on this jam-packed planet.

On Saturday, Feb. 25, at 7:16 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, the population here on this good Earth is projected to hit 6.5 billion people.

Along with this forecast, an analysis by the International Programs Center at the U.S. Census Bureau points to another factoid, Robert Bernstein of the Bureau's Public Information Center advised LiveScience. Mark this on your calendar: Some six years from now, on Oct. 18, 2012 at 4:36 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time, the Earth will be home to 7 billion folks.

These are estimates, of course, but clear trends emerge from the data behind them.

Population profile

A report issued by the Bureau in March 2004 noted that world population hit the 6-billion mark in June 1999. "This figure is over 3.5 times the size of the Earth's population at the beginning of the 20th century and roughly double its size in 1960," the study explained.

Even more striking is that the time required for the global population to grow from 5 billion to 6 billion—just a dozen years—was shorter than the interval between any of the previous billions.

On average, 4.4 people are born every second.

The population on Earth today is nearly four times the number in 1900 [graph]. Behind that phenomenal global increase is a vast gulf in birth and death rates among the world's countries. But according to population experts, this gulf is not a simple divide that perpetuates the status quo among the have and have-not nations.

Birth dearth

"What is worrisome about this demographic divide is not the differences among nations' population growth rates, but the disparities associated with these trends ... disparities in living standards, health, and economic prospects," explained Mary Kent, co-author along with Carl Haub, of a Population Reference Bureau report issued last month titled "Global Demographic Divide."

Kent, editor of the Population Bulletin, and Haub, a senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, reported that news of declining population in Europe fueled concern about a global "birth dearth," but there is continuing population growth in developing countries. The question, they asked, is which demographic trend is the world facing?

"The reality is that both trends are occurring," Haub said. "The dramatic fertility decline during the 20th century coincided with improved health, access to family planning, economic development, and urbanization."

Kent and Haub also reported that most countries will experience population growth through 2050, as the world adds a projected 3 billion more people to the total.

Remarkably, despite the many new developments over the past 50 years, one fact looks very much the same, explained Kent and Haub: Populations are growing most rapidly where such growth can be afforded the least—an observation that has changed little over time, they said.

Statistics
Around the World

261
People born every minute

310 million
Population in the year 1000

1.6 billion
Population in the year 1900

9 billion
Population in the year 2050

106 billion
Number of people ever born*

*Estimate as of 2002
SOURCE: Population Reference Bureau

*************************************************************

Saturday's Benchmark: World Population Will Reach 6.5 Billion
by Carl Haub

(Feb. 24, 2005) The U.S. Census Bureau is projecting that world population will reach 6.5 billion at 7:16 p.m. (Eastern Standard Time), on Saturday, Feb. 25, 2006, just as many of us are settling in to watch another night of the 2006 Winter Olympics.

As you keep track of Olympic gold-medal winners, here are some demographic facts to track as world population climbs toward 6.5 billion:


    The 6.5 billion in early 2006 is even more remarkable when we consider that the global total was 6.1 billion just six years ago.

    Virtually all of world population growth now takes place in developing countries. We say "virtually" since Europe now has more deaths than births each year and the lion's share of population growth in the few developed countries that still have more births than deaths—such as the United States—owe much of their growth to immigration from developing countries.

    Also remarkable is that world population at the beginning of the last century was 1.6 billion. At century's end, those two digits had exactly reversed.

    Population growth in developing countries is largely fueled by birth rates. But the poorest countries have the highest rates. In countries where per capita income is about $1,000 per year, women average five or more children. Where it is $12,000 or more, women average two or fewer children.

    While the global total may be 6.5 billion on Saturday, when will it reach its next significant benchmark, 7 billion? In 2012, when the Summer Olympics will be in London.



Carl Haub is senior demographer and holder of the Conrad Taeuber Chair of Population Information at the Population Reference Bureau.

*************************************************************

Questions to explore further this topic:

What is demography?

http://www.revision-notes.co.uk/revision/167.html
http://www.valt.helsinki.fi/so.....graphy.htm

What is the theory of demographic transition?

http://www.econ.duke.edu/Journ.....02.html#I1

Are there concerns regarding population growth?

http://www.alsagerschool.co.uk.....em/xt1.htm

Where in the world is the population changing?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page1.html

How are changes in populations measured?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page2.html

Is the world's population growing too fast?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page3.html

How is population change linked to economic development?


http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page1.html

Does economic development affect birth and death rates?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page2.html

What can population structure tell us about economic development?


http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page3.html

How does the social status and education of women affect a country's population?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page1.html

How can countries work together to solve problems related to population and resources?

http://www.aag.org/Education/c.....page1.html

What are the current statistics of the Philippines

http://www.census.gov.ph/

Has the Philippines backed into a demographic trap?

http://www.popline.org/docs/1109/108287.html
http://www.eastwestcenter.org/.....Nwp077.pdf
http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Semi.....ltiano.pdf

Lesson Plans on Population Study

http://www.prb.org/template.cf.....nPlans.cfm

Additional resources (PowerPoint Presentations and Activities)

http://www.prb.org/template.cf.....Guides.cfm

What are the various population issues?

Sustainability
http://www.unfpa.org/pds/index.htm

Supporting Adolescents and Youth
http://www.unfpa.org/adolescents/index.htm

Human Rights
http://www.unfpa.org/rights/index.htm

Gender Equality
http://www.unfpa.org/gender/index.htm

Culturally Sensistive Approaches
http://www.unfpa.org/culture/index.htm

Improving Reproductive Health
http://www.unfpa.org/rh/index.htm

Making Motherhood Safer
http://www.unfpa.org/mothers/index.htm

GAMES

http://www.epa.gov/epaoswer/osw/kids/index.htm
http://www.sheppardsoftware.co......htm#Games
http://www.funbrain.com/where/index.html


Last edited by adedios on Sat Jan 27, 2007 3:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2006 2:51 pm    Post subject: More landslides will come to RP, US group predicts Reply with quote

More landslides will come to RP, US group predicts
Manila Bulletin
27 March 2006
By JENNY F. MANONGDO

The country will experience moredisasters similar to the Leyte landslide if rapid population growth and environmental degradation are not addressed properly, an international environmental non-government organization warned.


The Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB) said that the Philippines is becoming more prone to natural disasters because of increasing population growth and environmental degradation.

A data sheet on Philippine population growth and its relationship with health and environment issues was launched by PRB with support from Conservation International to help local lawmakers craft useful legislations concerning Population Health and Environment (PHE) issues.

It revealed that population growth in coastal communities has resulted to a decline in natural resources particularly in the destruction of almost 90 percent of mangroves in the country.

In the past, the Philippines had the most extensive mangrove and coral reefs in Southeast Asia. Mangroves, which are forests of salt-tolerant trees and shrubs growing in shallow tidal waters of coastal areas, are important breeding grounds of fish and shellfish.

Sadly, the country has lost most of these mangroves since 1970 as mangrove forests were destroyed in favor of human settlements, fish and shrimp ponds and timber.

Mangroves, PRB said, protect against flooding and landlsides just as other trees in upland forests do.

Roger Mark de Souza, PRB technical director for the Population, Health and Environment (PHE) program cited a World Bank study that reflected the increase in natural disasters here.

He said from 1971 to 2000, natural disasters has killed 35,000 Filipinos. But from 1990 to 2000 alone, natural disasters has killed and disrupted the lives of 35 million Filipinos.

De Souza said the Leyte tragedy is a clear example of the vulnerability of the Philippines to natural disasters.

"While days of heavy rains loosened the soil there, the reduced forest cover and fractured and weak underlying bedrock could not sustain the heavy load the rains produced. In addition, population growth in Southern Leyte is rapid, population density is high, and roughly onequarter of the families are poor-placing significant additional stress on the environment and putting more people at risk for disaster."
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:25 am    Post subject: It's 2025. Where Do Most People Live? Reply with quote

Earth Institute News

posted 07/11/06

It's 2025. Where Do Most People Live?


A section of the new population map created by the Center for Climate Systems Research shows increasing populations in coastal areas, which will expose 2.75 billion people worldwide to the effects of sea level rise and other coastal threats posed by global warming. see full map
Researchers at the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), a part of The Earth Institute, have developed a high-resolution map of projected population change for the year 2025.

For the full article and map:

http://www.earth.columbia.edu/.....-11-06.php
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2007 7:48 am    Post subject: Paper challenges 1491 Amazonian population theories Reply with quote

Florida Institute of Technology
6 March 2007

Paper challenges 1491 Amazonian population theories

Much of Amazonian Basin not well-populated -- No 'built landscape'
There's a scholarly debate brewing about whether pre-Columbian Amazonian populations settled in large numbers across Amazonia and created the modern forest setting that many conservationists take to be ‘natural.'

This view has become fashionable among many archaeologists and anthropologists, and is challenged in a recent paper from Dr. Mark Bush of the Florida Institute of Technology. The findings of Bush’s research may rekindle a debate has major implications for land use and policy-setting in the rain forest.

"We don't contradict that there were major settlements in key areas flanking the Amazon Channel -- there could have been millions of people living there," says Mark Bush, a British-born paleo-ecologist who travels to extremely remote rain forest locations to collect core samples from ancient lakes. He then analyzes those samples for pollen and charcoal and thus is able to conclude with a high degree of accuracy the extent of human settlement in that region.

"What we do say is that when you start to look away from known settlements, you may see very long-term local use," he says. "These people didn't stray very far from home, or from local bodies of water for several thousands of years. We looked at clusters of lakes and landscapes where people lived, and asked, did they leave their homesite to farm around other nearby lakes? No they didn't. These findings argue for a very localized use of Amazonian forest resources outside the main, known, archaeological areas."

Bush says the evidence comes from a geographically diverse area: three districts, each with 3 (in two cases) or four lakes.

"In each we have one lake occupied and used, and the others little used or not used at all," he says. "So this is a total of 10 lakes that provide three separate instances -- one in Brazil, one in Ecuador and one in Peru, where there is evidence of long, continuous occupation of more than 5,000 years that did not spread to the adjacent, 8 to 10 kilometer distant lakes."

The findings are published in a paper titled "Holocene fire and occupation in Amazonia: records from two lake districts" that appears in a recent issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences. Bush says this paper, and another forthcoming in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, have important policy implications.

That's because the hypothesis of human-manufactured landscapes has been made popular by Charles Mann’s book - 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus – and could influence conservation policy in the Americas. That millions of people once populated the Americas, and that in Amazonia, at least, the rainforest is the product of long term human use, has been used as farmers and loggers as justification for clearcutting rainforests. Their argument, that the ecosystem already experienced vast landscape disturbance and proved resilient, relies on the ubiquitous influence of Pre-Columbian people, the suggestion that Bush’s work rejects.

"These data are directly relevant to the resilience of Amazonian conservation, as they do not support the contention that all of Amazonia is a 'built landscape' and therefore a product of past human land use," Bush says. "Most archaeologists are buying into the argument that you had big populations that transformed the landscape en masse. Another group of archaeologists say that transformation was very much limited to river corridors, and if you went away from the river corridors there wasn't that much impact. That's what our findings tend to support."

Bush doesn't expect that his new findings will settle the debate, however.

"There's just too much passion on this issue. People who are inclined to believe what we're talking about will say this is very strong evidence, and say 'let's have more.' The archaeologists will say this study only examines two districts."

Bush himself calls the paper, co-authored with Claudia Listopad, William D. Gosling, and Christopher Williams of Florida Tech, Paulo E. de Oliveira of Universidade do Guarulhos in Brazil, Miles R. Silman and Carolyn Krisel of Wake Forest and Mauro B. de Toledo of Florida Tech and Universidade Federal Fluminense in Brazil, an important first step in making the case, through core sampling and pollen and charcoal analysis of sediment from seven lake bottoms, three in one district, four in the other, that much of Amazonia has not been transformed by human actions, and ideally should be kept that way, to preserve species biodiversity.

"The way to see this is as a sneak peak," he says. "It's a new way to look at landscapes and it's a new tool. The study needs to be replicated in more places before people will be persuaded, but it's certainly a warning shot across the bow."

"While the majority of archaeologists argue the rivers were the major conduit for populations," he adds, "there is an increasing vocalization that there was much more widespread habitat transformation; that you still had a bulk of people along the river but their influence extended deep into the forest. It's still nebulous, and difficult to get people to map stuff, or put hard numbers on it, but there is a sentiment that the Amazonia has been disturbed and that the view of the Amazonian rainforest as a built landscape is gaining momentum. There are extremes at either ends, and the majority of people are in middle but there's a tendency of drifting toward the high end."

For example, he says 1950s population estimates were 1 million, in the 70s that estimate drifted up to 4 million; and in the 1990s drifted up to 10 million.

"We've now got a polarized community," he says.

At one end, he says, is Anna Roosevelt of the Field Museum in Chicago (she argues for large populations dispersed throughout Amazonia); at the other is Betty Meggers at Smithsonian (she argues these were very primitive people with low population).

Mark's studies are the first to apply core sampling methodology to determine through coal and pollen levels, how much human activity was going on.

###
on the web: http://research.fit.edu/bushlab/
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:11 am    Post subject: Peering into the Dawn of an Urban Millennium Reply with quote

Peering into the Dawn of an Urban Millennium
State of World Population

United Nations Population Fund
27 June 2007

In 2008, the world reaches an invisible but momentous milestone: For the first time in history, more than half its human population, 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas. By 2030, this is expected to swell to almost 5 billion. Many of the new urbanites will be poor. Their future, the future of cities in developing countries, the future of humanity itself, all depend very much on decisions made now in preparation for this growth.

For the website (with the full report, multimedia and links):

http://www.unfpa.org/swp/swpmain.htm
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:54 am    Post subject: Population Explosion Breeds Disease Reply with quote

Population Explosion Breeds Disease
By Erica Bulman, Associated Press

posted: 24 August 2007 10:13 am ET

GENEVA (AP) -- A ballooning world population, intensive farming practices and changes in sexual behavior have provided a breeding ground for an unprecedented number of emerging diseases, the U.N. health agency said Thursday.

AIDS and 38 other new pathogens are afflicting mankind that were unknown a generation ago, the World Health Organization said.

For the full article:

http://www.livescience.com/hea.....eases.html
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:39 pm    Post subject: Human Evolution Speeds Up Reply with quote

Human Evolution Speeds Up
By Andrea Thompson, LiveScience Staff Writer

posted: 10 December 2007 05:00 pm ET

Our Stone Age ancestors were more genetically similar to Neanderthals than they are to us, as our species has evolved 100 times faster in the past 5,000 years than at any other time in human evolution, a new study indicates.

Conventional wisdom has held that human evolution slowed as modern humans emerged and even stopped with us, but genetic data is now showing that the opposite is true, with aspects of our cultures, such as diet and medicine, and the ballooning human population pushing the gas pedal on the evolution of our species.

For the full article:

http://www.livescience.com/hea.....ution.html
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:47 am    Post subject: Sub-Saharan Africa: the population emergency Reply with quote

Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement
8 January 2008

Sub-Saharan Africa: the population emergency

Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing phenomenal population growth since the beginning of the XXth Century, following several centuries of population stagnation attributable to the slave trade and colonization. The region’s population in fact increased from 100 million in 1900 to 770 million in 2005. The latest United Nations projections, published in March 2007, envisaged a figure of 1.5 to 2 billion inhabitants being reached between the present and 2050.

The report of a demographic study, coordinated by the Centre Population et Développement (CEPED), commissioned by the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), was published recently. The work was performed by a joint team involving scientists from the IRD and specialist academics from Belgium, Cameroon, France and the Ivory Coast (2). They examined the recent and projected future population trends in Sub-Saharan Africa and the relationships between these tendencies and the development of the region. This review effectively demolished some generally accepted ideas, in particular the one that Sub-Saharan Africa is underpopulated.

Today, two out of three inhabitants of this large region of Africa are under 25 years of age (twice the number prevailing in Europe) and, with 32 inhabitants per km2, Sub-Saharan Africa is more densely populated on average than Latin America (28 inhabitants/km2). And although two-thirds of its population still live in rural areas, massive migration to the towns and cities is under way. Thus, whereas in 1960, just one city, Johannesburg, had a population of over one million, Africa now has about 40 of them. At the present rate of rural exodus, half Sub-Saharan Africa’s population would be urban dwellers by 2030. This transition should be met by huge investments in construction of new infrastructures, wastewater drainage and treatment and refuse reprocessing in the great agglomerations, whose management threatens to become more and more problematic. Intra-regional migration, another safety valve for relieving the ongoing densification of the rural sphere, is severely disrupted by the conflicts and crises affecting several host countries. The possibilities for emigration to industrialized countries are increasingly subject to control and are more difficult, particularly for the migration candidates with few qualifications. Moreover, the risks of population decrease linked to Aids appear to be receding. This factor stems especially from more effective prevention campaigns and improved access to health care. The latest UNAIDS assessments made using more reliable data brought the proportion of the African population infected by HIV to a lower figure, now put at about 5%. No country should therefore see its population decrease owing simply to the Aids epidemic.

A parallel factor at work is fecundity, equal to or higher than 5 children per woman. This is two to three times higher as in the rest of the world, an important factor being that four out of five African women live in countries where there is little access to contraception. Indeed less than 20% of women use modern contraceptive methods, as against 60% or more in Latin America and Asia. The fact that the use of contraception is progressing very slowly contributes to the strong population growth. Yet the control by women and couples over their fecundity remains the essential lever by which Sub-Saharan Africa might achieve its demographic transition. However, campaigns promoting the balanced family such as those successfully run in other developing countries (Bangladesh, Jamaica for instance) have never really been implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, whereas the overall demographic trend points towards a stabilization of world population, that of Africa is continuing on a substantial rise. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s least advanced region in terms of the move towards demographic transition. The area is also behind in the development process. In 2004 for example, only six countries out of 48 obtained a growth rate equal to or greater than 7%, the threshold considered essential for achieving the first MDO–in other words the halving of poverty between now and 2015.

The prime effect of this exceptional, continuing population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is its role as a major handicap to economic and social development of most of the region’s countries. The conclusion from the research is that if the African nations want to take up the double challenge of their demographic transition and reduction of their poverty, development policies must be completely rethought. It is by the adoption and implementation of policies hinged on combined actions–involving education, prevention of mortality, equitable access to health care and to family planning–that changes bringing advances and improved living standards could be generated in Sub-Saharan Africa. This perspective makes it imperative to place the population question, one of the crucial issues for the future of most of the countries concerned, at the core of their development policies.


###
(1) The CEPED is about to become a mixed research unit bringing together researchers from the French Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), the IRD and the Université Paris Descartes.

(2) The Millennium Development Objectives by the United Nations set in 2000 range from the halving of extreme poverty to primary education for all, by way of a halt to the spread of HIV/Aids by 2015.

(3) These studies were conducted jointly with scientists from the Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium), the Institut de formation et de recherche démographique (IFORD) of Yaoundé (Cameroon), the Ecole nationale supérieure de statistique et d’économie appliquée (ENSEA) in Abidjan (Ivory Coast and Université Paris X Nanterre (France).
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